Competitive Pricing of Hydrogen as an Economic Alternative to Gasoline and Diesel for the Houston Transportation Sector
Authors
Paulo Liu, Alexander M. Economides, and Christine Ehlig-Economides
Purpose
This white paper was developed to evaluate the real economic potential of hydrogen fuel within the Houston transportation sector. Created as part of a collaborative analysis on energy transition pathways, it provides a data-driven comparison of hydrogen’s cost competitiveness against conventional fuels and explores how existing infrastructure and federal incentives can accelerate adoption.
Executive Summary
The preference for liquid transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel relates to their much greater energy density. However, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from combustion of gasoline and diesel in the transportation energy sector account for 27% of US emissions. Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) refuel with hydrogen (H2) in 5 minutes and provide transportation range similar to internal combustion vehicles (ICEVs) without GHG emissions. This paper investigates how the cost of providing H2 refueling in the Houston area would compare with current gasoline and diesel prices.
This paper compares three H2 generation processes. The two processes that start with methane and water as feedstock are steam methane reforming (SMR) and SMR with carbon capture (SMRCC). The third process applies electrolysis using grid electricity and water as feedstock. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) H2A tools provides cost estimates of H2 generation by the analyzed pathways of SMR, SMRCC, and grid H2. By grid H2 this paper means H2 generated from the Texas electric grid using electrolysis. The H2 Delivery Scenario Analysis Model (HDSAM) created by Argonne National Laboratory generates the delivery model and costs. Our investigation of 45Q and 45V provides insight into the tax incentives producers could use to reduce their overall leveled cost of H2.
This paper provides investors and policy makers with compelling evidence, based on aggregated capital, operating, and feedstock costs for H2 generation, transportation and distribution, that gaseous H2 can be supplied in the greater Houston area at a cost that is competitive with gasoline and diesel fuel. The levelized total cost (LTCH) of H2 ranges from $4.54 per kg H2 (onsite SMR) to $8.86 per kg H2 (electrolysis). The option to reuse available transport, pipeline, road, and rail infrastructure for H2 and natural gas would be cheaper than new construction and would provide an option for low-cost H2 delivery by reducing capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operating expenditures (OPEX).
For as long as they exist, favorable 45V tax incentives can encourage investment in SMRCC H2 generation because the incremental cost ($113.6 per ton CO2) of storing CO2 captured for SMRCC is less than the maximum 45V incentive ($3 per kg H2 ≈$300 per ton CO2). While grid H2 offers a more straightforward generation and delivery system, emissions from the grid electricity generation compare with emissions from ICEV transportation. At much lower cost than grid H2, without tax credit incentive SMRCC H2 costs $6.10 per kg H2 at the pump. The customer breaks even paying about twice the price per gallon of gasoline and 1.8 times the price per gallon of diesel for a kg of H2 on a cost per distance-traveled basis. At the current liquid fuel prices a supplier can profitably offer H2 fuel at a price competitive with gasoline and diesel.
Tags: Hydrogen, Fuel Cell Vehicles, Houston, Clean Energy, 45V Tax Credit, Energy Economics