Reflections on the Election Result and Its Impact on the American Hydrogen Industry

Author

Alexander M. Economides, in collaboration with Enerdatics Energy Analytics Team

Purpose

This article was written in collaboration with Enerdatics Energy Analytics following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. It provides an early assessment of how potential policy shifts under the new administration could impact the future of hydrogen production, particularly through the continuation, modification, or cancellation of 45V and 45Q tax incentives.

Summary

The outcome of the 2024 election introduces uncertainty for the U.S. hydrogen industry. In this Enerdatics analysis, Alexander M. Economides argues that while a Trump administration is unlikely to repeal 45V and 45Q entirely, changes to their scope or enforcement could dramatically alter hydrogen’s investment landscape.

Electrolysis projects, which rely heavily on the 45V production tax credit, face the greatest risk, while methane-based hydrogen producers with carbon capture may benefit if the administration relaxes environmental qualification criteria. The piece underscores how dependent U.S. hydrogen growth remains on tax policy—and how quickly investor sentiment may shift with changes in federal priorities.

Tags: Hydrogen, 45V Tax Credit, 45Q Tax Credit, Inflation Reduction Act, Trump Administration, Enerdatics, Energy Transition, Policy Outlook