Alexander M. Economides<\/strong><\/p>\n This article was written independently by Alexander M. Economides and originally published on LinkedIn. It was developed to challenge conventional assumptions about the energy transition and explore whether rapidly growing global energy demand makes large-scale energy replacement less likely than continued expansion across multiple technologies.<\/span><\/p>\n [\/et_pb_text][et_pb_button button_url=”https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/energy-transition-only-expansion-alexander-economides-sbasc\/” url_new_window=”on” button_text=”Click here to read the original article on Linkedin” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” button_text_color=”gcid-f1b41f2a-9fe6-4545-9f39-3e1f32baae69″ button_bg_color=”gcid-04688e39-81a3-4cbb-93fd-ff74f7c4e35c” button_border_width=”2px” hover_enabled=”0″ locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{%22gcid-f1b41f2a-9fe6-4545-9f39-3e1f32baae69%22:%91%22button_text_color%22%93,%22gcid-04688e39-81a3-4cbb-93fd-ff74f7c4e35c%22:%91%22button_bg_color%22%93}” theme_builder_area=”post_content” sticky_enabled=”0″][\/et_pb_button][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n The people trying to pick winners in the so-called energy transition are making a huge, and potentially damaging mistake. We are living through one of the largest energy expansions in human history; we will need every resource they advocate, and we will also need every resource they wish to eliminate.<\/p>\n The internet increased electricity demand, then cloud computing expanded it further, and finally blockchain (which converts energy directly into currency) appeared. Now AI and hyperscale datacenters are driving forecasts that would have sounded absurd a decade ago. The IEA\u2019s <\/span>World Energy Outlook<\/a> <\/span>forecasts a 15% increase to global energy demand by 2035, and there is no reason to believe that trend will stop.<\/p>\n Historically, societies have fed their voracious appetites for energy by using the latest technologies to augment existing infrastructure rather than trying to replace it. And yet, public discourse about energy often sounds like this is a winner-take-all fight: renewable versus fossil-fuel-based electricity, internal combustion engine versus battery electric vehicles, etc. This is wrongheaded because we do not have a static energy system.<\/p>\n Look at the chart below: consumption of every major energy resource is increasing except biomass, which is \u201cassumed constant since 2015.\u201d Some countries may be reducing dependence on greenhouse-gas emitting technologies, but globally, fossil-fuel consumption is still trending upwards.<\/p>\n Why is this happening? As an example, I taught a course on Values-Based Decision Making, a few weeks ago, to a room full of executives and upper-managers visiting from Nigeria. During our discussion about sustainability, one participant said: \u201cI am trying to bring electricity, water, and basic infrastructure to people who do not currently have them. If that means using natural gas, then we are going to use natural gas.\u201d That statement did not surprise me for even a second; they have access to abundant natural gas, and they do not have the luxury to place long-term emissions concerns above immediate human necessities.<\/p>\n In developed countries, people often frame energy discussions around optimization. In developing countries, people frame those discussions around industrialization and basic living standards. Countries trying to build electrical grids, hospitals, clean water systems, and industrial capacity are unlikely to prioritize idealized energy systems over immediate improvements to living standards.<\/p>\n That does not mean environmental concerns are fake or irrelevant; they are not. I believe that we should reduce pollution by pursuing any technologies that meaningfully lower emissions without destroying economic viability. However, we must also recognize that energy demand is not optional.<\/p>\n For example, last year Donald Trump issued an <\/span>executive order<\/a> <\/span>directing Americans to reconsider coal; when societies face a voracious appetite for energy, they consider every available fuel. This is not some ideological victory; it is a bellwether for anticipated energy scarcity.<\/p>\n But if this causes coal usage to expand again in the U.S., repeating the environmental mistakes of the past, like allowing localized smog or regional acid rain, would be unbelievably shortsighted. Coal proponents should not assume environmental restrictions will disappear forever. It is a terrible bet, both politically and economically, and investors making that mistake are likely to learn expensive lessons; new facilities had better make their coal as \u201cclean\u201d as they can.<\/p>\n Ironically, many coal proponents are celebrating the ongoing cancellation of American wind projects; they are repeating the exact mistake once made by the people who celebrated the destruction of coal infrastructure. People on every side of this debate often sound apocalyptic, smug, or triumphalist, as though they can vote energy systems out of existence or centrally plan them to perfection.<\/p>\n That is not how our global energy infrastructure works. We do not need every megawatt to come from a source we personally prefer; we need enormous quantities of energy from every scalable resource available, including natural gas, renewables, hydrogen, nuclear, and technologies that do not even exist yet at commercial scale.<\/p>\n I do not know what the upper limit of human energy demand eventually looks like, or whether there even is one. But I am highly skeptical we are anywhere close to the point where total demand growth begins falling enough to allow a true replacement cycle. My expectation is that most major energy systems currently in use will continue growing for a long time to come, even as entirely new systems emerge alongside them.<\/p>\n Source Links:<\/p>\n https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2025\/executive-summary<\/a><\/p>\n https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/energy-production-consumption<\/a><\/p>\nPurpose<\/strong><\/h4>\n
Original Article<\/h4>\n
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